Showing posts with label stat-crunch. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stat-crunch. Show all posts

Saturday, 7 May 2011

Labour have twice the power in council than in polls

Stat-Crunch 2 - Representation In The Council Chamber

This stat-crunch doesn't look at Labour as a political force, so much as a component in the council chambers. Rather than analysing party politics, this is more to do with representation of public opinion in the council chambers.

So as a bit of fun, let's see how far away from proportional representation the next 4 years at the Council will be.

It's clear to see that Labour support in the polls ends up almost doubled in the Council.

Ironically, the Conservatives are the biggest sufferers under the first past the post system used, getting less than 5% input in council votes despite over 15% public support.

And over 20% of Stoke votes have zero input in the city council.

40% Labour support inflates to 77%
20% Other support (incl. Lib Dems) shrinks to 0%


Nevertheless, the AV referendum proves that voters in Stoke-on-Trent are happy with this system (even if the referendum was specifically for parliamentary elections).

Friday, 6 May 2011

The Top 5 - Most & Least Successful Candidates


Thanks to re-elected Councillor Matt Wilcox for this stat-crunch idea.

Stat Crunch 1 - Most & Least Successful Candidates.

In my first analysis of the results, I've highlighted the 5 most and least successful candidates at the polls. I have done this by calculating margins for each ward's winner and bottom-place candidate.

To work out the winner's margins I deducted the second-place candidate's vote % from their own, to give a % difference. For 2 and 3 member wards, I decided to take each winner's % and deduct the top-placing non-elected candidate's %.

To calculate the least successful performers, I deducted their vote % from the candidate who placed above them's vote % giving a negative number for their margin.

I hope that makes sense anyway! Here are the Top 5 (all Labour) and lead impressively by current Leader of the Council Mohammed Pevrez. Also, 3 of the 5 were re-elected.


And below are the 5 least successful candidates at the polls. 4 are Lib Dems, 1 Conservative.


If you have any requests for stat-crunches for either the Council elections or the referendum, let me know on twitter (@stokeelect2011) or leave a comment below (no need to sign-up, just post!)